A collection of posts that “seemed like a good idea at the time”.


  • Recently, I was reading David Thorstad’s new paper “Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils”. In it, he models the value of reducing existential risk on a range of different assumptions. The headline result is that 1) most plausibly, existential risk reduction is not overwhelmingly valuable–though it may still be quite valuable, it doesn’t…


  • Our money goes further in the future, giving us an initial reason to invest to spend later. Unless we live at an especially important time.


  • In certain circles, nuclear is seen as one of the best options for powering the world. For many years I too was pro nuclear. This is an important update because it changes what policies I think are best.


  • I’ve been thinking about a new approach to learning which I haven’t seen anywhere else, here’s a bare bones sketch. I’ll tell you why it’s exciting at the end because I want to tell you what it is first.


  • Imagine someone taking their friends out in Japan, comfortably conversing and joking with the waiter before ordering for everyone. Are they ‘fluent’? Their friends think so, and perhaps they are until they walk outside to the street and realise, they don’t know how to ask for directions.


  • Last year I took a personality test called the IPIP-NEO test. It’s like the “Big-5” but with lots of subcategories. For example, you might have average “openness to experience” by having low imagination, emotionality, and artistic interests, but high adventurousness, intellect, and liberalism. The breakdown seems more interesting than the average. Importantly, this test gives…


  • If you want to get fit, try to find exercise that will blend into the background. For me it’s my morning commute. My bike is faster than the bus and doesn’t only go every now and then. My bike is an easy hour of exercise, that doesn’t take willpower because it’s genuinely the best option.…


  • If you want to get fit, try to find exercise that is fun. For me, it’s climbing. I want to go because I love it. If you don’t have something that is fun, be a scientist. Try things until you find something you love. Each experiment will teach you something (even if it’s just what…


  • See the enemy. Anxious thoughts, deep depressions, and other enemies of the mind can ruin anything that could have been good. We think a better situation will feel better, but the enemy turns any riches to dust. Remember hope. Even when you feel nothing could work, fight anyway. Even when it feels hopeless, something might…


  • If you get a message, it’s just one of the crowd jostling for your limited attention. Not responding is easy and understandable. Imagine you were in a real crowd of people talking at you at once, at all hours of the day. You might miss a thing or two, you’re only human. But when you…